Science

This winter: mild or wild?

Either way, don't blame El Niño, say two experts from the Weather Channel.

By Stu Ostro & Colin Marquis

The Northeast chills out with a cool summer. An early autumn cold wave sets records as it blasts into the USA. Coupled with a pending fuel crisis that could send home heating bills soaring, the difference between a mild winter and a record cold one translates into hundreds of dollars for households. Not to mention hours spent shoveling and scraping the white stuff -- as well as driving in it.

With early signs providing clues, we at The Weather Channel are happy to answer the questions everyone is asking this fall:

Is the heating oil crisis arriving at the worst possible time? Yes. Let's start with those two weather-influencing players we've dealt with the past few years: El Niño and La Niña. Very active since 1997, they are on winter break, which means we're in a neutral phase. History shows this isn't encouraging. Neutral winters tend to be colder than El Niño and La Niña winters across the northern half of the country. El Niño and La Niña helped to fend off frigid air, the kind that sends temperatures dipping down below zero. With these phenomena gone, we expect cold air to be more successful in its efforts to trek south of the Canadian border -- though we can't say whether it will take more frequent aim at the East, West or Midwest. We also expect increased snowfall in parts of the central and eastern USA.

Does this mean global warming is over? Not likely. Though considerable uncertainty exists with future climate change predictions, don't read too much into summer's localized cool weather or winter's outlook. Let's see what happens over 20 years, not one. As with stock market trends, assuming global warming continues, there will be short-term ups and downs, but over the long haul, warming will prevail for most. We say "most" because long-term climatic trends suggest the entire planet will not warm at an equal rate, and some places could get even colder.

Will spring come early? There's a good chance. Forget about groundhogs and their shadows. While there are no guarantees for 2001, science and historical trends provide good clues. Here's what we know: Thanks to global warming, much of the nation tends to bounce back with relatively mild temperatures between those icy blasts. And on average over the coming years, late winter temperatures will likely warm more quickly, making way for an early spring. The bottom line: In the long run, those heating bills may not be as bad as you fear.

Senior meteorologists Colin Marquis and Stu Ostro last wrote about summer's forecast for USA WEEKEND Magazine.