Issue Date: December 30, 2001

The future is almost history

As 2001, the year, closes, we ponder: Was 2001, the movie, kitschy or clairvoyant?

Here's what came true and what's still science fiction.

Have you watched 2001: A Space Odyssey lately? The movie got a lot of stuff right. Still, it feels dated. Much of the technology that seemed so futuristic in 1968 is still floating somewhere out there in the future. Videophones are impractical, we can't talk to our computers, no one lives on the moon, and you can't fly on Pan Am to an orbiting Hilton hotel.

Here's a look at some of the predictions made back then and when we may finally get the innovations that haven't happened yet.

Videophones: The phone company has pushed these ever since they were showcased at the 1964 World's Fair. In 2001, the videophone was universal. In our real world, they're close. The technical problems are long gone; almost any PC with a $50 camera and an Internet connection can call any other similarly equipped computer. Instead, human nature holds us back. When we call in sick, do we really want the boss to see us? Should Mom be able to glimpse just how awful we look on Sunday morning? It's fine for Grandpa and Baby to drool at each other from across the country, but most people would rather be invisible. Until today's tech-tolerant teens are middle-aged, video calls won't catch on.

Computer consciousness: I yell at my PC all the time, but it's a one-sided conversation. We're a long way from a computer that can think and make rational decisions. Now, they can't even understand us when we talk or reliably pick us out of a crowd. Even if something like 2001's intelligent HAL is possible, it's at least 10 years away. And we're even farther away from droll robots such as Star Wars' R2-D2 and C-3PO.

Flying cars: Henry Ford unveiled his "sky flivver" in 1926 and, in 1940, was convinced that "a combination airplane and motor car is coming." But by 1968, even 2001 filmmakers Arthur C. Clarke and Stanley Kubrick discounted the notion of personal aircraft.

Sitting in traffic, I still dream of flying cars. They're at least 20 years away, but with computers, DVD players, on- board Internet access and talking interactive maps, at least our cars now are like computerized cocoons on wheels.

But the best is yet to come. Sonar -- the same thing that lets whales and dolphins find each other in the sea -- soon will enable cars to detect and avoid accidents. Next year General Motors plans to test a collision avoidance system in 10 Buick LeSabres. The cars can't fly, but I'm still excited. I've backed into too many parked cars and telephone poles.

Space travel: We've already had our first space tourist: millionaire Dennis Tito, who spent six days on the International Space Station. Yes, the $20 million he paid is a bit high, but for $98,000 you can book a seat on Space Adventure's reusable space plane, to be launched sometime between 2003 and 2005.

My prediction: Billionaire Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen will lead the way. He throws a super-expensive annual party for 250 of his closest friends that typically involves luxury cruise liners, chartered jets and elaborate dinners. In 2005, I think, he'll move his splendid party into orbit.

Biotechnology: Frankenfood! Superbugs! Eternal life! Well, at least 2001 touched, obliquely, on the last one. In 1968, America obsessed over splitting the atom. Today, we're both captivated by and terrified of splicing genes.

Biotech already has given us disease-resistant crops and a few interesting drugs. Yet more new drugs, in-depth disease screening and even individually tailored treatments will come by 2006. The debate over cloning will continue to rage while scientists perfect the techniques. However, expect scary developments, too, as terrorists twist DNA into designer diseases.

The Internet: 2001 depicts a world in which computing is just another invisible utility, like electricity and water. HAL is everywhere: monitoring, helping and even playing chess. We're not there yet, but within five years, the Internet will become both transparent and ubiquitous. Powerful computers, disguised as cellphones and pagers, will be woven into clothing and worn like jewelry.

Of course, I could be wrong. The prediction business, as even geniuses like Clarke and Kubrick discovered, is easy to get into but difficult to succeed at.