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Issue Date: December 15, 2002
The Oscar Expert's Hot Picks
So what if Academy Award nominations aren't out until February? Showbiz authority Tom O'Neil previews likely winners you can enjoy now.
By awards guru Tom O'Neil
About this week's cover
When USA WEEKEND got "Gangs of New York" director Martin Scorsese and star Leonardo DiCaprio together for an exclusive, hour-long photo shoot at Los Angeles' tony Peninsula hotel, the mood was relaxed, owing largely to the rapport between the two Hollywood icons.
"It was a wonderful shoot, because Marty and Leo seem to have a great relationship," says photographer Michael O'Neill. "I think Leo was excited about being photographed with Marty, who he sees as a sort of mentor." Fans can see the fruits of that relationship when "Gangs "finally opens next weekend.
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And the next Oscar nominees will be ... "The Hours," "Antwone Fisher," "Chicago" and "Gangs of New York."
How do I know? Because I've studied showbiz awards more closely than any other journalist; written books on the Oscars, Emmys and Grammys; and pooled predictions from top entertainment pundits at my Web site, GoldDerby.com. (Were you paying attention last February when I was the first to trumpet that Denzel Washington would pull ahead of Russell Crowe in the Best Actor race?)
"Confessions of a Dangerous Mind:" George Clooney (right, with Sam Rockwell as Chuck Barris) makes his directorial debut.
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This year, I've agreed to go out on a limb expressly for the readers of USA WEEKEND Magazine with a special holiday present: my early inside scoop on the hottest Academy Award prospects of this season (the nominations won't be announced until Feb. 11):
Denzel is a front-runner again, thanks to "Antwone Fisher" (opens Dec. 19), one of the dozen-plus pics opening during this year's home stretch, when the studios release their sprint horses. But not for Best Actor; this time, he's a contender for Best Director. Academy voters love to hug heartthrob actors debuting behind the camera (e.g., Robert Redford for "Ordinary People"), which also could bode well for George Clooney, with his "Confessions of a Dangerous Mind" (more on that later).
But Oscar voters may prefer veteran director Roman Polanski. "The Pianist" (opens Dec. 27), the true Holocaust tale of a Polish musician, eerily mirrors Polanski's real childhood, when he hid from the Nazis during World War II. Oscar has been known to welcome back expatriates like Polanski -- who fled Hollywood in 1977 after pleading guilty to having unlawful sexual relations with an underage girl in Jack Nicholson's hot tub -- from old sex scandals (Ingrid Bergman, Charlie Chaplin).
"Far From Heaven:" Julianne Moore (with Dennis Quaid) excels as a troubled Donna Reed clone.
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Speaking of Jack, he's back -- and that rascal aims to tie Katharine Hepburn's record of four Oscars for acting by winning Best Actor as a grumpy (of course) widower who rediscovers what life is all about when he hits the road in a Winnebago in "About Schmidt" (opens Dec. 20).
Meanwhile, Meryl Streep could break her tie with Hepburn for most noms (12) by scoring in either the supporting category as a magazine writer in "Adaptation" (open now) or in the lead category as a contemporary literary editor in "The Hours" (opens Dec. 27). That movie also could provide a Best Actress nomination for Nicole Kidman as suicidal novelist Virginia Woolf and a Best Supporting Actress nod for Julianne Moore as a stifled '50s housewife. Coincidentally, Moore plays another stifled '50s housewife in "Far From Heaven" (already open). A radiant Donna Reed clone, she could be nominated for Best Actress (hey, Reed won an Oscar!). Got all that?
"Antwone Fisher:" This year, Denzel Washington (left, with Derek Luke) is a Best Director contender.
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Lots of top stars have lots of top chances this year, including Leonardo DiCaprio. In Martin Scorsese's looong-awaited "Gangs of New York" (due next Friday), Leo lusts after Cameron Diaz while seeking revenge against Daniel Day-Lewis as a 19th-century mob leader who murdered his dad. But his best shot at Best Actor is probably for Steven Spielberg's "Catch Me If You Can" (opens Dec. 25), in which DiCaprio gets to show off his acting chops by switching identities (doctor, pilot, history professor) as a con man eluding the FBI's Tom Hanks in the '60s.
"Chicago:" Catherine Zeta-Jones may shimmy into the Academy's hearts.
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Cops already have caught up with two dueling, leg-flashing, song-spouting, gin-swilling dames (Renee Zellweger and Catherine Zeta-Jones) in Roaring '20s "Chicago" (opens Dec. 27). A leading contender for Best Picture, it's the latest attempt to convince Oscar voters that movie musicals ain't dead.
Early buzz on The Lord of the Rings, which returns Dec 18: "The Two Towers," artistically speaking, towers over "The Fellowship of the Ring," which nabbed the most Oscar nominations last year but lost Best Picture.
"The 25th Hour:" Edward Norton, left, is bound for prison (and a Best Actor statue?).
Photos: "Confessions" Stephen Vaughan; "Antwone Fisher" Sidney Baldwin; "Chicago" David James; "Heaven" and "25th Hour:" David Lee
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If Gandalf & Gang fail to spellbind voters, there's a futuristic alternative: "Solaris" (out now), with George Clooney as a spooked astronaut aboard a mysterious space station. Considering Oscar voters' notorious scorn for sci-fi, Clooney could be howling at the moon if he expects a Best Actor bid. But there's always a chance he'll be nominated for his directorial debut, "Confessions of a Dangerous Mind" (due Dec. 27), which probes the bizarro life of TV's "Gong Show" creator Chuck Barris (was he really a CIA hit man?), played by Best Actor possibility Sam Rockwell. Rockwell may face a tough challenge from Edward Norton as a prison-bound man who bids old friends farewell in Spike Lee's "The 25th Hour" (opens Dec. 25).
All of these holiday-season films are jockeying against rivals released earlier this year: "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," "Minority Report," "The Road to Perdition" and "Y Tu Mamá También." Which ones will actually make it across the Oscar finish line? For that, even an insider like me has to wait for the real deal, the Oscar show on March 23.
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