2004: Welcome to the wonderful world of wireless

Plus, more changes that will transform your life in the coming 12 months.

It takes time for new technology to change lives. Roughly 14 million Americans now use cellphones exclusively. Next year, millions more are expected to chuck their home phones for good for the convenience of a cell. Why? The Federal Communications Commission is finally forcing phone companies to let us switch our home numbers to our cellphones and keep our cell numbers even if we switch carriers. As for other transformative technologies, here are four more to look for next year:

Portable video players. Remember when Sony's Walkman swamped the market in the early '80s? Suddenly you could play music anywhere, even during your daily commute, without bothering the guy next to you. Next year you'll be able to do the same with movies and television. Minuscule computer hard drives, no bigger than a quarter, now hold 20 full-length films. A breakthrough flat-screen technology called OLED (organic LED) produces amazingly crisp images on a screen the size and thickness of a credit card. Those two great technologies that taste great together will combine to make next year's gotta-have-it device. Portable video players are just starting to show up, but by next fall, expect to see them everywhere, including Apple's video iPod and Sony's PSP, which plays movies, games, TV and more. Video will even invade your cellphone. You already can watch television (sort of) on some Sprint phones. Because the picture changes only once or twice a second, it's more like watching a slide show. But Nokia is launching a real-time TV phone in Europe, so expect to see others improving on the technology in 2004.

The best light bulb yet. Speaking of LEDs, use of those tiny light-emitting chips will explode next year. Mostly used to illuminate digital clocks, remote controls, appliances and traffic lights, next year they'll start replacing incandescent light bulbs. Eventually, the standard light bulb will be extinct (sorry, Edison). Why? LEDs are brighter, use less energy, come in wild colors and can last for decades.

Wireless Internet, everywhere. The same wireless technology that turned coffee shops into on-ramps to the Internet is about to go global. How it works: A tiny wireless hub, connected to the Internet like a digital hummingbird feeder, lets passing computers sip its data nectar. I have one on my home computer's cable modem, so if you're within 50 feet of my house, feel free to log on. Expect about 1 million more people to buy hubs within a year.

Track anything or anyone. Buh-bye, bar codes. Next year, we'll see everything from blueberry jam to blue jeans sporting an RFID (radio frequency identification) tag. It works like those marvelous devices that let you whiz through toll booths without stopping, and it's changing everything from Wal-Mart to warfare. The versatile tags store info and track items, too. (The Las Vegas airport will start using RFID on luggage next year.)

The technology also is being used on living things: The Food and Drug Administration has approved "biochips" for pets; in livestock, they could help track health threats. Human versions that would monitor vital signs may not be far off; the military has been testing a system at a mobile hospital in Iraq to track injured soldiers. In the war on terror, RFID systems may prove valuable in detecting chemical and biological agents; sensors are in place in the Boston and Washington, D.C., subways and San Francisco's airport, with more to come next year. An affordable handheld version is in development.

It doesn't stop there: RFID wristbands at some prisons keep track of inmates and guards. Of course, there's a dark side to tracking humans; fortunately, we can expect to see a commercial RFID blocker next year.

And you thought 2004 would be boring.

Jim Louderback is editor in chief for Internet at Ziff Davis Media.