Issue Date: February 8, 2004

TravelSmart
By Kimberly Lisagor

Last-minute travel: Does it pay to wait?

Yes -- if you know what you're doing. So take our expert's advice.

It used to be a steadfast rule of travel: Plan ahead, save a bundle. But more and more vacationers are waiting until the last minute to book their trips, often with the hope of saving money. A poll taken by the Travel Industry Association of America found that nearly two-thirds of 2002's leisure travelers planned their vacation within two weeks of departure. And the United States Tour Operators Association says 86% of its members have reported an increase in last-minute bookings. So why the change?

It's largely a post-9/11 misconception, says Edward Hasbrouck, author of "The Practical Nomad: How to Travel Around the World." When travel fell sharply after the 2001 terrorist attacks, hotels and airlines reacted by lowering prices at the last minute. "This was exacerbated when travel suppliers were reluctant to acknowledge the extent of the decline in demand," he says. "Acting on exaggerated hopes for speedy recovery, they left advance prices high and kept being forced to lower them at the last minute when the recovery didn't materialize. As a result, travelers got the idea that prices will always get lower at the last minute."

Sometimes that's true, but often it's not. The availability of last-minute bargains depends on several factors, not the least of which is luck. As your departure date nears, understanding why some rates plummet and others soar can help you decide whether to buy now or to hold out for a better deal.

The inventory game
Pretend you own a hotel. Your records show that in the coming weeks dozens of rooms are likely to sit empty. You can keep rates high and hope to sell a few more, or slash prices enough to unload most, if not all, of them. Chances are, your profits will be higher if you fill them, even at a steeply discounted rate.

"Hotels are in a weaker bargaining position than ever before, because everybody kind of sees what's going on," says Michael G. Frenkel, president of MFC PR, a New York-based publicity firm that specializes in travel and hospitality. With more travelers waiting to book their accommodations, hotel owners are increasingly forced to drop their rates to fill rooms.

Timing is everything
But before you assume that procrastination always pays, consider this: Waiting works only when there are empty rooms to fill. "If you're looking for a hotel in Manhattan on New Year's Eve, you'd better expect to pay a lot more," Frenkel says. Major holidays are obvious high-traffic times, especially in big cities. But less publicized events -- say, a convention in Wichita, Kan. -- also can fill a hotel to capacity.

It's the same story for airlines. On any given February weekend, flights into Milwaukee may yield excess inventory, and airlines may decide to discount the extra seats accordingly. But in March, when thousands of basketball fans find out which teams will play in NCAA tournament games there, demand for that same destination will skyrocket. So will late-in-the-game airfares.

The online advantage
If you have to travel on short notice, the Internet can be your best friend. Sites like Orbitz, CheapTickets and Expedia have become popular dumping grounds for leftover hotel rooms and airplane seats, which frequently show up as inexpensive packages you can buy two weeks to three hours before departure. A recent search on CheapTickets' Last Minute Trips page turned up 369 quick getaways from Washington, D.C., starting with an airfare-and-lodging package to Syracuse, N.Y., for $188 per person. That's less than the flight alone normally would cost, even with two weeks' notice.

In buying impulse trips online, flexibility is key. You'll increase your odds of finding deals if your dates are somewhat loose. Most major travel sites now offer search options that let you find the cheapest rates within a certain time period. On Expedia, which books rooms at 54,000 hotels, find the best rates within 60 days by clicking the "hotels" tab, selecting a destination, and leaving the check-in and check-out dates blank. On Orbitz, click the "flexible dates" button to access the Flex Search menu, which finds the lowest fare on a given route within a 30-day period. The best rate could be a month from now, or it could be tomorrow.

Look for added value
All this last-minute scrambling has some in the hospitality industry on edge. Hence, many hotels have started rewarding customers who plan ahead: a free visit to the spa, a bottle of wine, dinner at the hotel restaurant. "Smart consumers will look for that, especially leisure travelers," Frenkel says.

So last-minute travel can be a money-saver for those willing to take a chance, but there's no guarantee that waiting will take you when and where you want to go. Get hung up on the numbers and you may end up staying home.

Kimberly Lisagor is a travel writer based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Her book, Outside's Wilderness Lodge Vacations (W.W. Norton, $22.95), has just been published.