Issue Date: September 3-5, 2004

In this article:
Near Boston
New Madrid, Mo.
Meers, Okla.
Charleston, S.C.

Active faults are like natural land mines in the earth. Except that the faults' punishing product, the earthquake, will go off without warning in perpetuity. It will trigger far more damage, over a larger chunk of geography. And it may surprise you to learn that you and loved ones may reside, in geologic terms, next to a pretty potent land mine.

The West Coast and its more than 700-mile-long San Andreas fault get all the attention. And for good reason, given the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (7.8 on the Richter scale), the 1971 San Fernando quake (6.7), the 1989 Loma Prieta "World Series" quake (6.9) and the 1994 Northridge quake in suburban Los Angeles (6.7), which, at an estimated $40 billion in damage, is considered the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history.

"I worry about it," says Sue Kramer, a member of the Garden Club of Charleston. "I even bought earthquake insurance for my house.

But calling quakes "a California thing" would be off the mark. In the past 10 years, there have been 146 quakes measuring 4.0 or greater in magnitude in the mainland USA away from the West Coast. Earthquakes can happen anywhere, because faults exist throughout the country, and faults are the backbone of a quake. They're created as huge blocks of Earth's crust try to move past each other, like strangers in a packed subway. Pressure builds. With the release of pressure comes the shock of a quake. Each time there's a substantial tremor, U.S. Geological Survey scientists head to the scene to gather more clues to help us better understand this phenomenon. Exclusively for USA WEEKEND Magazine, leading researchers from the USGS' National Earthquake Information Center have pinpointed the top non-Western trouble spots -- places that have been rattled before and are due again:

Place: Cape Ann, Mass., near Boston
What happened: A magnitude 6.0 earthquake on Nov. 18, 1755.
What earthquake experts say: There have been about eight notable quakes in the region in the past 25 years. Scientists think New England is due for another.

It took only 45 seconds. Some two dozen miles north of Boston, the people of Cape Ann were jostled from their sleep in the early morning hours. At least a 6 in magnitude, the earthquake so shook Boston that 1,000 chimneys fell from the rooftops. "Fortunately, no one was on the streets at 4 a.m., so no one was killed," says geophysics professor John Ebel, director of the Weston Observatory research lab at Boston College. "That was the saving grace." A complication in sleuthing out this fault system? Its focal point is underwater off the coast, so geologic mapping is out.

Scientists estimate that, on average, a magnitude 6 earthquake happens in New England every 450 years, so the next one should come within 200 years. A magnitude 5 quake in Boston, however, would be quite capable of crushing walls and knocking a lot of fine china off those Beacon Hill shelves. The region should get one of those every 50 years, and the last was in 1940 -- so expect one soon.

A major quake would shake up a place like the Plough and Stars, an Irish-style pub in Cambridge. "There would be panic," says salesman Richard Acerra, nursing an alcohol-free beer at the Plough. "All the buildings would probably fall down because of all the landfill." He's referring to the worst-kept secret in Beantown: Much of the city is built on filled land, a wobbly terrain that would shift around like a beanbag chair during an earthquake. And some of the city's beloved historic structures are especially vulnerable, because they were built so massively, with masonry construction, to withstand fire. In a quake, the very mass that gives a building its strength can destroy it.

"An earthquake can be like pulling a rug from beneath a stack of bricks," says engineering expert John Wathne, president of Structures North Consulting Engineers in Salem, Mass. "While the stack may be strong enough to stand on and hard to push over, it can fall apart as the rug is pulled out from beneath it."

Place: New Madrid, Mo.
What happened: At least three major earthquakes in 1811-12, ranging from 7.3 to possibly 8.0 in magnitude.

What earthquake experts say: There's at least a 25% chance that a magnitude 6.0 quake will strike within the next 50 years.

These earthquakes were felt throughout one-third of what is now the United States from Dec. 16, 1811, to Feb. 7, 1812. Historical accounts say they were so powerful, they made the Mississippi River appear to roll backward. "We still pick up an earthquake a day along the New Madrid fault," says Eugene Schweig, regional coordinator of the earthquake hazards program at the USGS office in Memphis.

Because Schweig and other experts think a magnitude 6 quake could come soon, there are not only human costs to think about, but economic ones as well: The region is home to an assortment of gas, phone, transportation and transmission lines that serve much of the eastern United States. "A major earthquake could produce chaos far worse than the Ohio blackout in the summer of 2003," Schweig says.

The New Madrid community keeps it all in perspective. Futurist Iben Browning predicted a quake there in 1990, and the national media descended but, alas, found nothing on which to report. Residents chuckled at the commotion. Tom's Grill served up an "Earthquake Burger" (with a split down the middle of the bun). A local museum sold "It's Not My Fault" T-shirts.

"That was our 15 minutes in the sun," says city administrator Furgison Hunter. "If something real would happen here, we already store water and tell people to turn their gas off." H.H. "Buddy" Townsend, who runs an insurance agency on Main Street, recalls waking up in the night as a young man, with earthquakes sounding like a herd of buffalo running outside his window. Recently, he was cleaning out a shed and found an earthquake survival kit dating back to the 1990 scare. "The kit still had water," he says. "What it tasted like, I don't know. But, really, we don't worry about this. We were raised with earthquakes."

Place: Meers, Okla.
What happened: A quake at least 6.5 in magnitude, sometime between A.D. 700 and 800.

What earthquake experts say: The likelihood of a quake of magnitude 6.5 or higher within the next 200 years is very small, but not impossible.

Geologists have known about the Meers fault for nearly 80 years. But only in the past two decades have they realized its potential to cause large earthquakes. Still, little is known about the significant quake of 1,200 to 1,300 years ago. Scientists believe the fault produced yet another major earthquake more than 2,700 years ago.

These days, the Meers Store and Restaurant doubles as the Meers Observatory, an official USGS quake-monitoring station. Diners chomp on range-fed longhorn burgers, then belly up to a seismograph that records earth movement worldwide. "We've had two earthquakes here in the last six to seven years that were rather severe," says restaurant owner Joe Maranto. "They cracked the buildings and knocked a lot of pictures off the wall. For about seven seconds, it will sound like a freight train rolling by."

In neighboring Lawton, population 91,333, officials are concerned. A water treatment plant 7 miles north of town, by the Lake Lawtonka dam, just got a $33 million expansion. "If something dramatic would happen to the dam, it would take away our water supply," says Cecil Powell, who was mayor for six years until this past March. It's believed that a 1939 reconstruction project took the possibility of seismic activity into account, and the dam is considered sound.

Place: Charleston, S.C.
What happened: An estimated magnitude 7.3 earthquake on Aug. 31, 1886, reportedly killed as many as 110 people.

What earthquake experts say: Expect at least a magnitude 5.0 here within the century.

Caused by the Woodstock and Ashley River faults, this massive earthquake caused a staggering (for 1886) $5 million in damage within a 200-mile radius, roughing up buildings and twisting railroad tracks like licorice sticks.

"The coastal plain here is sand," says Pradeep Talwani, a geophysics professor at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. "When an earthquake strikes, the saturated sand behaves like liquid. It will not withstand anything built on top of it. It will topple over." Talwani estimates that a quake like the 1886 one occurs, on average, every 500 years. Although such a quake cannot be ruled out within the next 100 years, a magnitude 5 is more likely.

The city, like many others, follows building standards set by the International Code Council. These guidelines are intended to ensure that Charleston's buildings will not collapse during a serious earthquake like the 1886 disaster. But Charleston's geography is tricky. "We also have to protect our buildings from flooding and winds reaching 130 mph gusts or higher," says Douglas M. Smits, director of inspections, who oversees construction for the city.

Charlestonians are well aware of the danger. "I worry about it," says Sue Kramer, a member of the Garden Club of Charleston. "I even bought earthquake insurance for my house. But I feel safer here than when I visit my son. He lives in San Francisco."

Additional reporting by Jill Bock, Erik Sherman, Apryl Chapman Thomas and Mary Logan Wolf