Issue Date: October 29, 2006

Who will determine next week's election

Our expert analysts offer a smart, concise look at the seven groups crucial to next Tuesday's vote.

By Steve and Cokie Roberts

7 crucial groups: Married Moms, Moderate Republicans, Independents, Hispanics, Midwesterners, White Catholics, New Borderlands.

Every election season brings a search for the one magic group that holds the key to success. Hard Hats, Soccer Moms, NASCAR Dads: They've all had moments in the political sun. This year, with help from the Pew Research Center, we have identified seven key voting groups that could swing next Tuesday's elections. To make the list, each had to meet two standards: large enough to make an impact, yet flexible enough to be up for grabs.

What's at stake? These seven groups will have a big say in determining the balance of power for the rest of the Bush presidency. Democrats need to pick up six seats in the Senate and 15 in the House to win new majorities in Congress. The outcome will be settled in a handful of competitive contests scattered across the country. Local factors, like a factory closing, always matter. And outside events -- a terrorist attack, a natural disaster or a fresh scandal, such as the explosive revelations over ex-Congressman Mark Foley's illicit exploits -- can suddenly shake up the landscape. Regardless, these are voters who matter most this fall:

1 Married Moms. The gender gap first appeared in 1980, as women started to side with Democrats and men with Republicans. Single women, who often are economically vulnerable, have remained loyal to the Democrats. But their married sisters, particularly those with children, have drifted to the Republicans. Because they're often homeowners with kids in school, married moms respond to GOP promises of lower taxes and less crime, and they tend to see terrorism as a direct threat to their families. In 2002, married moms backed Republicans by 17 points. But as the fall campaign heated up, they told pollsters they were favoring Democrats by a dozen points.

As household managers solving daily problems, married moms are card-carrying pragmatists. "They might be conservative culturally, but for the most part, they're not right-wing," notes Republican pollster Whit Ayres. Iraq has shaken their confidence in the Republicans, and these moms "are more likely than men to say, 'We made a mistake, and we should get out,' " says Andrew Kohut of Pew. And with rising interest rates, some have become "mortgage moms," worried about house payments and credit card bills and blaming the ruling party for their problems.

But this group remains volatile. "Fears of terrorism are just below the surface, and they can be resurrected by events," Ayres warns. And President Bush has tried to do just that, focusing on married moms by warning that "our children" and "our homes" would be endangered by a terrorist triumph "in the streets of Baghdad." A key question: Will these moms blame Republicans for not keeping their kids safe from sexual predators like Mark Foley?
Where they matter: Missouri, where Democrat Claire McCaskill (mother of three, stepmother of four) tries to unseat Sen. Jim Talent

2 Moderate Republicans. About 15% say they could vote Democratic this fall -- twice the number who strayed two years ago. According to a Pew survey, these GOP moderates display very weak party loyalties, and the war on terror is a key reason. Just two years ago, three out of four moderate Republicans said that struggle was being won; today only half believe that. A large gap also has opened on moral issues. Almost half of the moderates say conservative Christians have "gone too far" by imposing their religious values on issues like stem cell research. "By and large," says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, "these are suburban, Main Street Republicans who resent the takeover of their party by the religious right."

For years, conservative Democrats, mainly in the South, felt alienated by party leaders who leaned to the left on issues like abortion and gun control. Many switched to the GOP, saying, "I didn't leave my party -- my party left me." Today, many moderate Republicans feel the same way. But their disaffection might not be translated into votes. "They say they're going to vote Democratic, but you have to wonder if they're really going to do it," Kohut says.
Where they matter: Connecticut suburbs, where Republican Congressman Christopher Shays has softened his pro-war stance to fend off a strong Democratic challenge

3 Independents. About 40% of American voters are Democrats and about 40% are Republicans, leaving roughly 20% as Independents. These Independents are hard to reach because they often are disengaged from politics and unmoved by partisan appeals. But they are a true swing voter group, and two years ago they leaned toward the Republicans. Now, they're more inclined to back Democrats, and the war in Iraq is a major reason. About half say the invasion was the wrong decision and want to bring the troops home.

Republican pollster Linda DiVall cites another factor: Katrina and its aftermath. The White House's failure to respond quickly raised "concerns about presidential leadership." That's why Bush has made more than a dozen trips to the storm-damaged region in the past year, trying to repair his political image.
Where they matter: Tennessee, a Republican-leaning state with a Democratic governor, where Democrat Harold Ford Jr. is trying to capture a Senate seat vacated by Republican Senate leader Bill Frist

4 Hispanics. They recently outpaced African-Americans as the country's largest minority group, and GOP pollster Ayres predicts that "in 10 years, they will be the No. 1 swing voter group in the country." Bush always has appealed to Hispanic voters, and their conservative cultural views and entrepreneurial instincts make them natural GOP recruits. But when leading Republicans blocked proposals to legalize undocumented workers, they damaged the GOP's standing in border areas such as Arizona and New Mexico. Spanish-language ads also are showing up this year in unlikely places like Washington and Wisconsin.
Where they matter: New Jersey, where an appointed Democratic senator, Bob Menendez, the son of Cuban immigrants, profits in a tough race from "the Z factor," a growing Latino population eager to vote for someone with a name ending in "Z"

5 Midwesterners. With the Coasts leaning left and the South leaning right, the Midwest is the most evenly divided region in the United States. Take away Florida, and recent presidential elections have been decided in states such as Ohio and Missouri. In the Midwest, Democrats have enjoyed a sharp spike in popularity this year, and the main reason is the economy.

The loss of manufacturing jobs in old industrial centers is diminishing consumer confidence and souring voters toward incumbents. (This mainly hurts the Republicans, though Democratic governors like Michigan's Jennifer Granholm feel the heat, too.) Rising gas prices last summer also hit hard in a region where towns can be far apart, but Republicans enjoyed a burst of optimism when prices fell this fall.
Where they matter: Ohio, where Democrat Ted Strickland has put up a strong race against Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell for the governorship, and Republican Sen. Mike DeWine is struggling to hold his seat

6 White Catholics. As ethnic Catholics left behind their immigrant roots and old neighborhoods, many shifted from the Democrats to the GOP. As Democratic icon Tip O'Neill used to say, "Many of our members are now rich enough to be Republicans." Others were driven rightward by the cultural upheaval of the Vietnam era and, by 1980, white Catholics formed the core of the "Reagan Democrats." Catholic support for Republicans has been building ever since and, two years ago, Catholics favored Bush by nine points. But this year, white Catholics are in play again, and experts offer many explanations.

Social issues that matter to Catholics, like abortion and gay marriage, have been overshadowed by war and economics. Democrats have soft-pedaled their more extreme positions on those topics and recruited candidates who speak openly about their faith. But if Catholics flirt with their old flame, they're not ready to go steady with the Democrats. As Bush focused this fall on the threat of terrorism, his ratings soared with this critical swing vote.
Where they matter: Pennsylvania, where abortion rights opponent and Catholic Democrat Bob Casey is trying to unseat one of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate, Rick Santorum

7 New Borderlanders. The immigration issue always has affected border states such as California and Texas. But now Hispanics are settling all over the nation. "New Borderlanders" are voters who live far from the southern edge of the country but still voice their concerns about the effect of immigration on their schools, hospitals and towns. Often, immigrants are drawn to these areas by jobs in specific industries -- carpets in Georgia, meatpacking in Iowa -- but many of their adopted hometowns resent them as outsiders. "This is an extremely hot issue," Ayres says, and the Republicans are hoping it'll drive their hard-core supporters to the polls. But, as Ayres points out, the immigration issue also can "create a real dilemma" for many candidates, placing them squarely between two swing voter groups.
Where they matter: Denver suburbs, where Republicans hope an anti-immigration backlash will help them hold on to a House seat that they barely won four years ago

Cokie and Steve Roberts are longtime USA WEEKEND contributing editors. Cokie Roberts, news analyst for ABC and NPR, is the author of the best seller "Founding Mothers." Steve Roberts, author of a memoir, "My Fathers' Houses," teaches journalism and political science at George Washington University. They live in Bethesda, Md.
Cover story illustrations by Mark Shaver for USA WEEKEND